Fantasy Realities (Wk 6)

At this point in the season you are probably thinking one of three things:

  1. I am good and should definitely start making plans for the playoffs
  2. My guys are going to need to deliver consistently if I’m going to make a playoff push
  3. PANIC!!!!!!!!

No matter where you are at this point, it is absolutely not the time to rest on your laurels (provided you know what laurels are and have done what is necessary to acquire them). The teams that win are the teams that take opportune moments to make their teams better during the season. It is with that thought in mind that I wanted to look at the first third of the fantasy season and try to identify some “buy low” and “sell high” candidates that can help you maximize your team’s potential .

NOTE: Obviously I don’t have the ability to know if the owners of some of these players would be willing to part with them, so this may not help you, but these are at least some places you might consider looking.

NOTE 2: It’s hard to really categorize everyone into these categories, so the basic premise was to see who is underperforming compared to expectations or outperforming expectations and then weigh in on where they belong:

NOTE 3: At this rate, it’s going to be all notes and no column…

NOTE 4: Wow Raul Ibanez is clutch…

Quarterbacks

  • Andrew Luck – Buy Low – I realize you can’t buy very low, but I am a big believer that he’s only going to keep getting better. In fact, I think he will finish the year in the Top 7 overall.
  • Matthew Stafford – Buy Low – I don’t see any way where if he’s healthy he won’t come back from this start. He’s too good with too many good weapons.

Running Backs

  • Steven Ridley – Sell High – The Patriots will figure out a way to stop giving him consistent carries and this Top 5 run will likely slide to closer to a Top 15 instead.
  • Frank Gore – Sell High – This is really personal bias… I just can’t see him staying healthy the rest of the way. If he does, the production will likely stay, but his history is quite a cautionary tale.
  • Michael Turner – Sell High – Turner’s production seems a bit like a mirage. He doesn’t have his “burner” speed anymore and one week he was saved by a pass. Looking at his production last year, I could see a drop-off coming.
  • Demarco Murray – Buy Low – Murray has been off to a slower start, but he’s likely to have some big games coming up and if you have championship aspirations, his week 16 matchup with New Orleans is pretty enticing.
  • Darren McFadden – Buy Low – Run DMC hasn’t gotten the carries necessary to get him into a rhythm and start producing. I think there are weeks coming up soon where he will put up Top 5 numbers. Also he faces Carolina in Week 16 which could be very good if you make it that far.
  • Chris Johnson – Sell Low – Chris Johnson is terrible. If you can get anything for him, then get it. I didn’t like him going into last year and I didn’t like him going into this year. Believe it or not, I still don’t like him.

Wide Receiver

  • Marques Colston – Sell High – While I do believe that the Saints’ offense will keep putting up numbers, Colston is probably coming off of two of his biggest games of the season so it’s an ideal time to sell. I would expect him to come back down a bit after the bye-week when Lance Moore and Jimmy Graham are expected to be 100%.
  • Dwayne Bowe – Sell High – The majority of Bowe’s stats have come in garbage time this season and it appears that the Chiefs have rectified many of their defensive issues which is going to limit the amount of garbage time that there will be in the upcoming weeks. I’d sell him pretty quickly if you can.
  • Andre Johnson – Buy Low – Currently rated as just a 3rd receiver production-wise it would be worth a gamble on his health to try to get him while he’s still scuffling. The Texans are a run-first team so his days of being the #1 receiver around are over, but he could have some huge games in certain upcoming matchups.
  • Brandon Lloyd – Buy Low – If you look at his targets you will see that Brady is clearly taking a liking to Lloyd and, while Welker has been taking the lions-share of grabs the last couple of weeks, his emerging chemistry will likely only keep making this duo get better.
  • Reggie Wayne – Buy High – Undervalued by the majority of people in the preseason, Wayne is not only looking good, he’s looking as good as he did in Manning’s last couple of years in Indianapolis. And as Luck continues to get more comfortable, it’s clear that he likes Reggie just as much as Peyton did.

Tight End

  • Tony Gonzalez – Sell High – Tony has played brilliantly and with the Falcons putting more and more control in Matt Ryan’s arm it does seem that Tony will keep producing all season, but his current level is a good bit above where you can realistically expect him to sustain.
  • Antonio Gates – Buy Low – It’s pretty likely that you can find someone disenchanted with Gates at the moment, and I just struggle to believe that he will struggle for much longer.

NOTE 5: Uh…wow… Raul Ibanez is REALLY clutch

Stat of Interest to No One but Me:

Did you know that the current #2 QB, RB, & WR were each the #11 player drafted at their respective positions?! (Matt Ryan, Jamaal Charles, & Victor Cruz)

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Categories: Fantasy Sports

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