I’ve often said that fantasy football is the fantasy sport that takes the least skill and the most luck. With baseball and basketball, teams that are constructed well will end up making the playoffs the vast majority of the time. However, football is most often determined by players that no one saw coming. To prove this out, I’ve decided to compare the pre-season rankings at the 3 main skill positions to the final standings and see just how true that was this season. (Hint: It was very true) For comparison purposes all rankings and predictions are from ESPN.com
The Quarterback position was actually a little more predictable than the other positions:
- 50% of the Top 10 at the beginning of the season were in the Top 10 at the end.
- The #1 QB was predicted to be #10
- 4 of the 10 best QBs were predicted to be 15th or lower including #27 & #29
The best running backs were actually the absolute hardest to predict this season:
- Only 2 of the predicted Top 10 finished in the Top 10
- 5 of the Top 10 were predicted to be 34th or worse before the season
- The #1 RB was predicted to be #38
The top wide receivers were some of the best, but even that position was not immune to being flipped upside down:
- 3 of the Top 5 preseason WR’s finished in the Top 5
- 5 of the Top 10 were predicted to be 24th or below
- The #7 WR was actually ranked 66th before the season
So for all of your grand plans coming out of your drafts, it’s very likely that your season didn’t end up anything like how you anticipated. The good news is that you were in very good company. Now the other thing that is interesting is that the best players from throughout the season didn’t always translate into keys to winning championships. Of the Top 10 players on the most championship teams on ESPN, two of the top five were outside of the Top 30 for the season at their position.
So all of that tells me one thing… trying to predict fantasy football is like trying to nail Jell-o to a tree. So better luck next year!! (But don’t hold your breath)